Let’s Discuss Opinion Polls: Learning from Diversity

Asia Pacific 8th Conference Program - 21-23 November 2025 | Tokyo, Japan


DayTimeRoomSessions
Friday, November 2110:00-10:05Rikkyo University,
Building 12
– Conference Rooms 1 & 2		Opening Remarks - Tokuhisa Suzuki (President, JAPOR)
Friday, November 2110:05-11:05Rikkyo University,
Building 12
– Conference Rooms 1 & 2		Research Presentations (20 minutes per presentation including Q&A)
1. Wataru Matsumoto (Kansai University) – “Location- and Prefecture-Level Response Rates in Omnibus Surveys Using the Map-DB Method”
2. Hitofumi Yanai (Japan Institute for the Public Interest, Attorney – Membership Pending) – “Age-Based Response Patterns and Information Disclosure Challenges in Major Media Opinion Polls”
3. Masao Suzuki (Nikkei Research) – “Analyzing Electoral Dynamics Using a Post-Election Web Survey of the 27th House of Councillors Election”

Friday, November 2111:05-12:35Rikkyo University,
Building 12
– Conference Rooms 1 & 2		Roundtable Discussion – Media Polling Leaders’ Forum: Reflections on the 2025 House of Councillors Election
- Keiichi Kaneko (Director, Public Opinion Research Dept., Asahi Shimbun)
- Daisuke Nohara (Deputy Director, Public Opinion Research Office, Mainichi Shimbun)
- Kengo Ota (Director, Public Opinion Research Dept., Yomiuri Shimbun)
- Yasushi Sato (Director, Public Opinion Research Dept., Nikkei Research)
- Yoshihiro Ozaki (Deputy Director, Election Center, Kyodo News)
- Moderator: Hiroshi Horie (Former Editorial Writer, Asahi Shimbun)

Friday, November 2113:30-14:00Rikkyo University,
Building 8 – Room 8303		Keynote Address - Tokuhisa Suzuki (President, JAPOR)
“Scientific Opinion Research in Japan - Issues 80 Years After the War”

Friday, November 2114:00-15:00Rikkyo University,
Building 8 – Room 8303		Panel Discussion – Crisis in Opinion Polling and the Path to Renewal
How can media opinion polling, now facing critically low response rates, be revitalized? Speakers will discuss proposals for cross-company collaborative research and report on the current state of postal surveys, which have been considered relatively stable.

- Kazuaki Nakagawa (NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute) – Proposal for Collaborative Research Across Media Organizations

- Toshio Ishimoto (Asahi Shimbun) – Current State and Challenges of Postal Surveys

Friday, November 2115:00-17:00Rikkyo University,
Building 8 – Room 8303		Reports & Roundtable – Responding to a Changing Media Environment and Fluid Politics
How can we detect the surge of support for new political forces — such as Ishimaru in the Tokyo gubernatorial race, Saito in the Hyogo gubernatorial race, or the Sanseitō party in the recent Upper House election — which traditional estimation models struggle to capture? Experts will discuss this question along with key issues surrounding online surveys.
- Taku Sugawara (Political Scientist) – Moderator

- Masashi Hagiwara (Advisor, Transcosmos)
- Kaoru Matsuda (Election Strategist)

Friday, November 2118:00-20:30Cruise, Sunshine City 60,
Ikebukuro		Reception (Advance reservation required)

Saturday, November 2209:00-10:30Concurrent sessions A


Session Name: Management and Data Sharing in International Joint Surveys with Diverse MethodsSession ID: 2
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Lugina Setyawati
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: ELECTIONSSession ID: 7
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Gábor Tóka
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: FAMILY AND LIFE COURSESession ID: 24
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Markus Hahn
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: MEASUREMENT IN SURVEYSSession ID: 28
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Adam Zammit
Room: TBC
Papers:
Saturday, November 2210:30-11:00Coffee break
Saturday, November 2211:00-12:30D301Keynote

Public Opinion Polling and Prime Ministers:

How Changes in Survey Methodology Influence the Relationship between Public Opinion and Political Affairs

Yukio Maeda, PhD
Professor, Inter-Faculty Initiative in Information Studies, University of Tokyo

Major news organizations regularly conduct public opinion polls to inform the public about how citizens perceive and evaluate political affairs in contemporary Japan. The results of these polls are widely reported on television news programs and in newspapers, and are subsequently shared across various social media platforms.

Japan has a long history of public opinion polling, beginning immediately after the Second World War. From the outset, Japanese news organizations have adhered to the principles of scientific polling by employing representative random sampling. In the latter half of the 20th century, face-to-face interviews conducted with samples drawn through two-stage stratified sampling became the de facto standard method for media opinion polls. However, around the turn of the century, news organizations shifted their methodologies from face-to-face interviews to Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys to address declining response rates and rising costs associated with field interviews. Although the reasons for this change appear primarily technical and economic, the shift also provided greater flexibility in scheduling survey fieldwork and allowed more time to develop survey questions that respond to the most recent political and social events.

Compiling published polling results from major news organizations over the past five decades, I argue that the shift from face-to-face interviews to Random Digit Dialing has increased the influence of media opinion polling on the political process. More specifically, this change has not only made politicians more responsive (if not vulnerable) to the tide of public opinion but has also affected the types of politicians who can ascend to the position of prime minister.

Short Biography

Yukio Maeda is a Professor of Political Science at the Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies at the University of Tokyo. He earned his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan in 2001. His research interests include (1) public opinion and voting behavior, (2) methodologies in public opinion polling and social surveys, and (3) data preservation and dissemination in the social sciences. He was a member of the Social Science Japan Data Archive from 2006 to 2017 and has served as an advisor to the Kyodo News Opinion Poll since 2009. Throughout his career, he has participated in Japanese local teams involved in international comparative surveys such as the World Values Survey, Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Asian Barometers, and East Asian Social Survey. Most recently, he has served as a co-principal investigator of the SmartNews, Media, Politics, and Public Opinion Survey, which began in 2023.

Public Opinion Under Siege: Measuring Polarization and Volatility in the Aftermath of South Korea's Impeachment Crisis

Seongbin Hwang, PhD
Professor, Department of Media and Communication Studies, Faculty of Sociology, Rikkyo University

This presentation analyzes the dynamic shifts in South Korean public opinion following President Yoon Suk Yeol's unprecedented declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, and the ensuing "sedition" crisis that led to his impeachment. Drawing on public opinion data, we explore how this event both reflected and intensified the nation's deep-seated political polarization.

It focuses on two key areas: (1) The drastic volatility of approval ratings (Presidential and party support) immediately following the crisis, showing a sharp drop for the President but a complex realignment within the electorate, particularly among the swing voters. (2) The divergence in public perception and media framing regarding the nature of the incident. While the majority of the public rapidly categorized the action as a "self-coup" and a threat to democracy, a strong partisan divide emerged, with some conservative voices framing it as a necessary warning against "legislative dictatorship."

Furthermore, it discusses the "Triangle Dynamic" (Political Elite-Media-Citizen Action) and the contrasting international media narratives—the US focus on civic resilience versus the Japanese focus on democratic immaturity—and how these were selectively adopted to reinforce domestic partisan lines. The analysis highlights the urgent need for sophisticated survey methodologies to measure the depth of ideological schism and the effectiveness of political framing in a highly polarized democracy.

Short Biography

Professor Seongbin Hwang is a Professor of Media Sociology at Rikkyo University, Japan. He received his B.A. in politics from Yonsei University, Korea, and holds an M.A. in Sociology and a Ph.D. in Applied Sociology from Rikkyo University.

His research extensively covers media representation, focusing on 'otherness' and national identity, as well as the Cultural Geopolitics of East Asia. His publications include analyses of the Korean Wave (Hallyu) in Japan and the dynamics of public opinion on topics such as the Japanese gaze upon Chinese tourists. His current research topics also include perceptions of China/Chinese people in East Asia.

Professor Hwang started his teaching and research career at Ritsumeikan University in 2000 before moving to Rikkyo University in 2007. He has served as a Visiting Scholar at several international institutions, including UC San Diego, Simon Fraser University, and Monash University. He also served as the Director of the International Office at Rikkyo University starting in 2018.

Saturday, November 2212:30-13:30Lunch
Saturday, November 2213:30-15:00Concurrent sessions B


Session Name: POLITICS AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES ISession ID: 21
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Kazuhiro Terashira
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: DISINFORMATION, CONSPIRACY BELIEFSSession ID: 9
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Ikuma Ogura
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: SAMPLING AND MODESSession ID: 25
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Aguru Ishibashi
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: VALUES AND SOCIAL ATTITUDESSession ID: 13
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Marcus Eisentraut
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: WELLBEING, QUALITY OF LIFESession ID: 18
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Dankarl Leon Magpayo
Room: TBC
Papers:
Saturday, November 2215:00-16:00Coffee break
Saturday, November 2215:00-16:00Poster


Session Name: Poster Session 1 Session ID: 5
Time: 15:00-16:00
Session Chair: Yasuyuki Saito
Room: TBC
Papers:
Saturday, November 2216:00-17:30Concurrent sessions C


Session Name: STUDIES ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCESession ID: 16
Time: 16:00-17:30
Session Chair: Daniel Barredo Ibañez
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: Quality, Culture, and Context in Asia-Pacific Public Opinion SurveysSession ID: 3
Time: 16:00-17:30
Session Chair: Yu-tzung chang
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: Measuring change around the globe: Methodological and Comparative Research with data from the International Social Survey ProgrammeSession ID: 4
Time: 16:00-17:30
Session Chair: Egle Butkeviciene
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: SURVEY METHODOLOGYSession ID: 26
Time: 16:00-17:30
Session Chair: Mizuki Matsuda
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: YOUTH STUDIESSession ID: 17
Time: 16:00-17:30
Session Chair: Colin Irwin
Room: TBC
Papers:
Sunday, November 2309:00-10:30Concurrent sessions D


Session Name: VOTING AND ELECTIONSSession ID: 8
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Kenneth Ka Lok Chan
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: MEDIA, AGENDA-SETTINGSession ID: 19
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Fabricio Fialho
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: MIGRATION AND MIGRANTSSession ID: 12
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Seokho Kim
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: DATA QUALITYSession ID: 27
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Plamen Akaliyski
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: GENDERSession ID: 15
Time: 09:00-10:30
Session Chair: Gento Kato
Room: TBC
Papers:
Sunday, November 2310:30-11:00Coffee break
Sunday, November 2311:00-12:30Concurrent sessions E


Session Name: POLITICS AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES IISession ID: 22
Time: 11:00-12:30
Session Chair: Ali Carkoglu
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: SOCIETY, SOCIAL GROUPS, CLEAVAGESSession ID: 14
Time: 11:00-12:30
Session Chair: Tatiana Karabchuk
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: TRUSTSession ID: 11
Time: 11:00-12:30
Session Chair: Leonie Diffené
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: MISINFORMATIONSession ID: 30
Time: 11:00-12:30
Session Chair: Pratyush Sarma
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: SOCIAL MEDIASession ID: 10
Time: 11:00-12:30
Session Chair: Satoko Yasuno
Room: TBC
Papers:
Sunday, November 2312:30-13:30Lunch
Sunday, November 2313:30-15:00Concurrent sessions F


Session Name: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND DIPLOMACYSession ID: 20
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Peter Enns
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: POLITICS AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES IIISession ID: 23
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Ka Ming Chan
Room: TBC
Papers:

Session Name: CLIMATE AND GENERAL TOPICSSession ID: 29
Time: 13:30-15:00
Session Chair: Mihirani Dissanayake
Room: TBC
Papers:
Sunday, November 2315:00-16:00Coffee break
Sunday, November 2315:00-16:00Poster


Session Name: Poster Session 2Session ID: 6
Time: 15:00-16:00
Session Chair: Yasuyuki Saito
Room: TBC
Papers:
Sunday, November 2316:10-17:00D201WAP Business Meeting