Keynote Lecture: “The Emergence of the “Illiberal” Voter? Comparative Analysis of American and Global Elections 2016–2024”

May 13 – 09:30-10:30

Room: Regency B

Over the past decade, Donald Trump has emerged as a defining force in U.S. presidential politics—contesting three consecutive elections, reshaping the Republican Party in his own image, and eroding support among traditional Democratic Party constituencies. His surprising electoral victories, the January 6th insurrection, and even multiple assassination attempts have intensified debates about democratic backsliding, cultural backlash, economic grievances, and the rise of extreme partisan polarization and political violence in American politics. Yet these challenges are not uniquely American; liberal democracies around the world are similarly grappling with illiberal forces, candidates, and parties.

In this presentation, I will draw upon extensive data from American national election surveys conducted in 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2024 as part of the Comparative National Elections Project (CNEP), alongside other recent surveys and experiments with American voters. I will also incorporate comparative analyses from CNEP surveys that my colleagues and I have conducted in other liberal democracies over the past decade, placing the American experience within a global context. Through this analysis, I will highlight both the stability and the evolution of Americans’ fundamental democratic and political beliefs that have shaped today’s political landscape and contributed to Trump’s 2024 electoral success.

Erik C. Nisbet (Ph.D., Cornell) is the Owen L.  Coon Professor of Policy Analysis & Communication at Northwestern University and the founding director of the Center for Communication & Public Policy. His scholarship centers on American and comparative political communication, opinion formation, and political behavior. He is Co-PI of the Comparative National Elections Project (CNEP), conducting regular CNEP election surveys in the United States since 2012 and ad hoc election surveys in Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Ukraine, and Serbia. His research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Meta.