Keywords: Elections, polling, methodologies, IVR, online polling, Canada

Canadian Federal Party Polling: Its Evolution from 2000 to 2025 - Christopher Adams

Fitting in with the WAPOR conference theme of “The Evolving Landscape of Election Polls,” this conference paper provides an historical account of how the Canadian federal parties have used polling data to shape their campaign strategies. Over the past quarter century different methodologies have been used. This includes traditional phone surveys based on random sampling and an increasing reliance on new survey technologies and sampling. This includes Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and online polling techniques as well as using largescale panels in place of random digit dialing (RDD). More recently the parties and their strategists have been turning to other forms of research data gathering to gauge the electorate. This includes the study of social media and Big Data. Included in this paper is a discussion of who the individual pollsters and firms are that have been hired by the major parties, specifically those employed by the Conservative Party and its antecedents, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, and Bloc Quebecois. The informational basis for this paper includes media coverage, the secondary literature, and personal interviews with campaign directors, party strategists, and pollsters.

[Christopher Adams holds a PhD from Carleton University and is a political scientist at the University of Manitoba. He served as the Canadian national representative for WAPOR from 2020 to 2024, held managerial positions in the marketing research industry (1995-2012), and is the rector (i.e. president) of St. Paul’s College at the University of Manitoba.]