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The Campaign and Policy Relevance of the Predictors in Election Forecasting

Christopher Charles (University of the West Indies, Mona) - Jamaica

Keywords: US Presidential Election Forecast, Predictors, Campaign and Policy Relevance of Issues


Abstract

Purpose/Objective: This paper reviews the election forecasting studies published in the journal PS: Political Science and Politics on the America presidential elections since 2004 to understand the range and usefulness of the issues that are central to voting behavior. Context/Background: Although political economy models are the most popular, there are other forecasting models that have introduced other predictors that are also crucial for a broader and more nuanced understanding of voter preference. Method: A systematic review will be conducted on the published articles forecasting the American Presidential Election from 2004 to the present. The research questions are: what are the predictors or issues in the election forecasting models? How robust and accurate are these models? What are the campaign and policy relevance of these predictors? Data: The data collected will be identification of the predictors of the models, the variance, the models’ robustness and accuracy. Analysis: There will be a critical appraisal of the data, and a synthesis of the evidence from multiple studies thereby providing a summary of the evidence to answer the research questions. Main Findings: The main findings will comprise which models are the most robust and accurate, the variance and the predictors used in these accurate models. Conclusion/Implications: The predictors identify the issues that informs voting decisions, campaign strategies, and provide a guide for policy development further enhancing theory development.