Keywords: Political Polarization on Public Opinion

Title:

The Impact of Political Polarization on Public Opinion Poll Accuracy: A Comparative

Analysis of Traditional and Digital Survey Methods"

Author:
Oumaima Karnoune

Psychologist and Ph.D. Candidate in Clinical Psychology, specializing in public opinion
research and its implications in healthcare. Based in Morocco, Oumaima has extensive
experience in survey methodologies and analyzing the influence of social and political

dynamics on research outcomes.

Objective:

This study aims to explore the impact of increasing political polarization on the accuracy of
public opinion polls, focusing on the differences between traditional survey methods (e.g.,

telephone interviews) and digital techniques (e.g., online surveys).

Background:

Amid rising global political polarization, public opinion research faces significant challenges,
including the influence of political biases and misinformation. These issues substantially

affect the ability of surveys to accurately represent public opinion.

Methodology:

The study employs secondary data analysis of opinion polls conducted in three politically
polarized countries (United States, Poland, and Brazil) between 2020 and 2024. The
methodology compares response rates, prediction accuracy, and bias levels between

traditional and digital survey methods.

Data:

The research utilizes data from international survey platforms, such as Pew Research and
Gallup, along with open-source national studies. The sample includes 10,000 respondents

across varying political systems.

Analysis:

Statistical techniques, such as logistic regression and gap analysis, were used to identify
differences between traditional and digital survey outcomes. Factors like political affiliation,

age, and education levels were considered.

Findings:

Preliminary results indicate that digital surveys are more susceptible to biases related to
political polarization compared to traditional methods, though they excel in speed and cost-
effectiveness. Conversely, traditional surveys demonstrate higher accuracy but suffer from

low response rates.
Conclusion and Implications:

The research highlights the need to develop innovative survey methodologies that minimize
the effects of political polarization. Practical recommendations for improving survey methods

in increasingly complex environments are proposed.