From Peace Polls to AI: The Application of Artificial Intelligence to Conflict Resolution - Achievements and Challenges
Colin Irwin (University of Liverpool) - United Kingdom
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, International Survey Research, Peace Polls, United Nations
Abstract
‘Peace polls’ were first used successfully to reach the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland in the 1990s. Significantly, they engage with all parties and peoples to a conflict, in design and execution, are transparent, and have since been deployed around the world with mixed success (Irwin, 2020). In 2020 the author joined a programme of work with the UN Department of Political and Peace Building Affairs (DPPA) Innovation Cell to help develop the Remesh AI platform as a public opinion tool for conflict resolution (Alavi, Wahlisch, Irwin and Konya 2022). This paper reviews these AI technical developments, their application at UN Missions in Yemen, Libya, Bolivia, Iraq, Haiti, Lebanon, and their achievements and challenges. Subsequently, with OpenAI these same technologies and methods were applied to the democratic governance of AI (Konya, Schirch, Irwin and Ovadya, 2023). Potentially, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be able to integrate all these advances in conflict resolution for the benefit of humanity providing AI governance is ‘anchored in the Charter of the United Nations, international human rights law and other agreed international commitments’ (UN, 2024). To this end the professional standards set by AAPOR and WAPOR will need to be extended and monitored for compliance when AI is used for conflict resolution.
References
Alavi, D., Wahlisch, M., Irwin, C. J., and Konya, A., Using Artificial Intelligence in Peacebuilding, Journal of Peacebuilding and Development, Sage Journals, Vol. 17(2) p. 239-243, (2022).
Irwin, C. J., The People’s Peace Second Edition: Public Opinion, Public Diplomacy and World Peace, CreateSpace, Scotts Valley, CA, (2020). Available at: https://peacepolls.etinu.net/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf
Konya, A., Schirch, L., Irwin, C. J., and Ovadya., A., Democratic Policy Development using Collective Dialogues and AI. November 3, (2023). Available at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.02242.pdf
UN AI Advisory Body Governing AI for Humanity, Final Report, September, (2024). Available at: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/governing_ai_for_humanity_final_report_en.pdf
UN AI Advisory Body Governing AI for Humanity, Final Report, September, (2024). Available at: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/governing_ai_for_humanity_final_report_en.pdf