Keywords: Democracy, measurement, post-communist countries,

Democracy in Post-Communist Countries: From 1995 to Recent Times

The most commonly used indices to evaluate levels of democracy worldwide are Freedom House, Polity, V-Dem, The Economist EIU, and the Global State of Democracy. Both academic research and the media frequently rely on these indices to describe and analyze the state of democracy. But where do these indices come from? How reliable are they? To what extent can they be validly used?
This research aims to compare evaluations made by expert indices with the perceptions citizens have of their democracies in post-communist countries since 1995. Furthermore, it focuses on when and where citizens disagree with experts.
A combined database was created, integrating the five expert indices mentioned above, along with a set of questions related to democracy (level of satisfaction with democracy, the evaluation of the level of democracy in the country and support for democracy) included in surveys conducted in the region between 1995 and 2021 by different projects including the European Social Survey, the European and World values surveys, the European Quality of Life Survey, the Caucasus Barometer, Consolidation of democracy, Life in transition, the New Europe Barometer – including New Baltic and New Russia – and Values and Political Change in Post-Communist Europe.
Three types of analyses are performed:
1. A comparison of the historical evolution of the level of democracy in the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia between 1995 and 2021, according to expert indices and citizens’ perceptions.
2. A review of the relationship between expert indices and citizen perceptions.
3. A more detailed analysis of specific countries where the gap between expert indices and citizen perceptions is particularly substantial.
The analyses reveal some interesting findings.
First, between 1995 and 2021, satisfaction with democracy increased significantly in the region but support for democracy decreased. However, during that same period, citizens’ evaluation of the level of democracy in their own country increased until around 2005, decreased somewhat until 2015 and started to increase again afterward to regain its highest level of 2005 recently. Meanwhile, expert indices failed to detect any variation in the level of democracy.
Second, the analyses show that there is no systematic linear and positive relationship between citizens' perceptions of democracy and the expert indices. Indeed, the correlation between satisfaction and expert indices is generally negative.
Finally, post-communist countries that project or enjoy a favorable image in the West tend to be evaluated more positively by expert indices, regardless of the perceptions of their citizens.
The presentation concludes by questioning which aspects citizens seem to consider fundamental in their appreciation of democracy.