Keywords: values, political polarization, democracy, cluster analysis, segmentation

Part of the larger research project on polarization in Kazakhstan, the research question put forward in the first stage delves into the political values of the Kazakhstani public, aiming to define major clusters in the society based on their political values and attitudes. In the absence of systematic research into the political attitudes of Kazakhstan’s society, in the public and expert discourses, the question is compounded by numerous stereotypes and prejudices about citizens, often driving fears about deepening polarization. Our research aims to shed light on what the Kazakhstani public represents based on a three-dimensional measure of political orientation. This research not only demonstrates that Kazakhstani society is way more complex and diverse than usually perceived but also shows how non-conventional measures of political orientation can reframe our ideas about public attitudes, ideological cleavages, and polarization.
Using a mixed-methods approach, the research combined a nationally representative survey (n=1200) and focus group discussions, which provided nuanced insights into public attitudes and values. The typology was constructed through k-means cluster analysis based on survey responses measuring key political values, including the attitudes towards the political system and civil liberties, the role of the state in the economy, and sociocultural values and national identity. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews (CATI) in Kazakh and Russian from December 15, 2023, to January 9, 2024, in all 17 regions and cities of national significance. The target group was individuals over 18 years old living in Kazakhstan. The sample was based on a list of mobile phone numbers obtained using a random number generator. A total of 1,200 respondents were interviewed. The response rate was 18.4%.
The results provide a comprehensive picture of the political landscape in Kazakhstan featuring six distinct political typology groups, including Progressive Reformers, Skeptical Conformists, Ethnocentric Conservatives, Undecided Absentees, Liberal Pragmatists, and Authoritarian Loyalists. Through the segmentation approach, the study goes beyond broad generalizations to reveal nuanced variations in attitudes toward governance, democracy, economic priorities, and cultural outlook. It reveals the coexistence of sometimes inconsistent or contradictory yet established views within the population, reflecting the unique socio-political dynamics of Kazakhstan’s society. More importantly, the study finds common ground across groups in a shared value of democracy, which is fundamental for establishing the conditions for a constructive dialogue on the future trajectory of the country’s development. The findings equip policymakers and stakeholders with insights into the priorities, concerns, and values of different societal segments, enabling informed and more inclusive policies.
The project continues with further research employing an experimental method to explore the preconditions for polarization by looking into whether clusters’ preferences and attitudes stay consistent when translated into political action and whether their preferences for democracy are strong enough to forgo some of their core policy issues stances.