Keywords: election polling, polarization, misinformation, partisan framing, public opinion, survey methodology, credibility, Iran

This study investigates how the expansion of publicly reported election polls in Iran—a setting historically limited in accessible opinion data—has influenced political polarization, voter perceptions, and the credibility of polling in a rapidly evolving political climate. Specifically, it examines whether increased exposure to diverse polling results contributed to partisan bias, shaped voter behavior, and either exacerbated or mitigated political polarization. The research further tests the hypothesis that election surveys may achieve greater accuracy and reliability when conducted in an environment with lower degrees of polarization.

Against the backdrop of the global challenges facing election polling—particularly rising political polarization, misinformation, and questions of methodological soundness—Iran’s emerging polling culture provides a compelling case. Over the last decade, technological advancements and evolving media landscapes have encouraged a surge in both domestic and international polling efforts. While initial attempts in 2013 and 2017 successfully predicted unexpected electoral outcomes, the extraordinary 2024 Iranian presidential election, triggered by the incumbent’s sudden death, confronted pollsters with a highly uncertain environment. Three candidates enjoyed relatively similar support, and a growing roster of government, semi-government, and international organizations published regular polling updates, sometimes with limited methodological transparency.

The study employs a mixed-methods approach. First, it conducts a systematic review of the polling data, including pollster affiliations, stated methodologies, and frequency of reporting. Second, it uses a quantitative content analysis of published polls and their corresponding media coverage. Third, a comparative analysis applies theories of social conformity, political polarization, and media effects to interpret how exposure to differing survey results might influence voter attitudes and deepen partisan divides.

Data sources include 12 polls published during the 2024 Iranian presidential election period, collected from governmental agencies (e.g., IRIB), semi-governmental organizations (e.g., ISPA, Porsesh), and external polling institutes (e.g., Thirtyone in Washington, D.C.). While exact sample sizes and fieldwork dates vary, this information is drawn directly from publicly released poll reports. Where available, details on sampling methods, mode of data collection, and respondent demographics are incorporated into the analysis to assess credibility and potential biases.

The analysis focuses on how different poll results presented partisan divisions, the degree of methodological transparency, and framing strategies that may influence voter perceptions. By comparing polls that varied in their reported support margins and partisan framing, the study assesses whether published surveys shaped the competitive environment, reinforced in-group bias, and altered public expectations about the outcome.

Preliminary findings suggest that while all polls correctly predicted the eventual winner, their diverse quality revealed disparities in perceived credibility. Early evidence indicates that polls highlighting partisan differences may have reinforced polarization.

This research contributes to the understanding of how polling intersects with political polarization and misinformation in emerging polling environments. The results inform best practices for increasing transparency, managing partisan frames, and improving the accuracy and trustworthiness of election polls. Ultimately, these insights can guide both scholars and practitioners as they seek to refine polling methodologies and maintain public confidence in an increasingly polarized world.