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Global Voting Trends: Analysis of Referendums

Narciso Michavila (GAD3)

Keywords: Polls and elections

Abstract

Within the “Global Voting Trends” panel, this paper will analyze the referendums that recently took place worldwide. In particular, 2016 was a year of great political intensity in which referendums of great significance occurred internationally, such as the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union –BREXIT-, the Plebiscite of the Peace Accords in Colombia or the reform of the Italian Constitution. GAD3 was present in all of them, analyzing with local institutes the polling information.

In addition, there were also other referendums in New Zealand (asking whether to change the flag), in Bolivia (asking for the limitation of mandates of the president), in Hungary (for the policy of quotas of refugees), etc. All of them involved a great social debate in their countries, and surveys were a key element in the public debate.

What is happening worldwide to explain why polls appear to be failing in their ability to anticipate the outcome of the polls? On this paper, in addition to analyzing the results of the referendums, the degree of accuracy of the surveys will be also studied, especially in the UK and Colombia processes, where the surveys predicted a different result from the one that finally occurred.

To what extent were polls able to foresee the outcome? Are polls truly failing? Why do voters vote against the government? Has it always been like this or is it a recent change in the electorate? Has the referendum lost its role as a citizen participation tool?

To answer these questions, Juan and Narciso, from the Spanish polling firm GAD3, will do an analysis of the latest internationals referendums.