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The Development of a Measure of Perceived Threat to Political Performance

R. Lance Holbert (Temple University)

Keywords: Media effects on public opinion

Abstract

Trust in governmental institutions, elected officials, and media is on the decline. Eckstein (1971) argued 45 years ago for the need to study citizens' perceptions of potential threats to political performance. A potential political threat is defined as anything that is perceived to negatively impact the durability, legitimacy, or day-to-day effectiveness of governmental structures, as well as working against our basic civil order (i.e., ability to achieve peace and prosperity). The threat could be external or internal to a country and/or its governmental institutions. The proposed work will explicate perceived threat to political performance (PTPP) and offer a new four-item scale. Reliability and validity assessments of the measure will be conducted using three U.S.-based data sets. All data derive from non-probability samples of likely voters collected via Qualtrics. The first data set (N = 996) was collected after the completion of the U.S. presidential primary election season. A second data set (N = 562) was collected just after the Republican and Democratic conventions. The following threats were measured in these data: The U.S. political primary election process, The Democratic Convention, The Republican Convention, Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton. A third data set (anticipated N = 1500) will be collected in the 10 days following the Inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States (i.e., January 21 - 30, 2017). The potential threats focused on in this survey will be the following: Donald Trump, Mike Pence, the U.S. House of Representatives, The U.S. Senate, and the news media industry. Initial Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) results indicate the formation of distinct PTPP articulated factors for unique political objects. Primary factor loadings are universally strong and secondary loadings are very weak. Reliability estimates for PTPP scales assessed to date retain Cronbach's alphas above .90. Convergent and discriminant validity estimates indicate the proposed measure is tapping the intended construct, and the new construct is distinct from like-minded concepts (e.g., trust). Finally, the relations between the various PTPP scales and different types of media use (e.g., traditional, digital, social, mobile) will be explored given that most citizens' connections to various political objects are purely mediated. A discussion of the theoretical, normative, and practical importance of the new perceived threat to political performance (PTPP) scale will be offered and additional lines of research will be proposed.