Back to Programme

The factors of electoral mobilization: The Tunisian Case

Nebil Belaam (EMRHOD Consulting)

Keywords: Electoral polls in emerging/incomplete democracies

Abstract

Since the Arab spring, Tunisians have three opportunities to vote.
Right now, we are five months away from municipal elections.
Next May 8th, will be a very important Rendezvous’ in the routing of the Tunisian democratic process.
Despite the multiplication of information and awareness campaigns conducted by the Supreme Independent Electoral Institution (ISIE), the rate of registered citizens compared to the population eligible to vote would not exceed 60%.
This rate has remained almost the same since the last two Election Rendezvous: Constituent Election in 2011 and the 2014 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections.
So, why, we cannot level that rate?
Is this due to a lack of communication (both qualitatively and quantitatively), a lack of expertise in the management of the electoral process?
Is it the mistrust of citizens and their disappointment with the actors they elected?
Is there, in all cases, reached the maximum threshold of participation, regardless of the electoral issues, and regardless of the quality of the political offer?
In short, what are the factors that push Tunisian citizens to massively move to the polls to ensure better electoral mobilization?

Methodology:
First part will be basis on an impact study of the information and communication campaign conducted by the ISIE, through a double qualitative and quantitative survey.
The second will be basis on a longitudinal survey to track the attitudes and vote intentions of the most reluctant and motivated citizens, (monthly survey of the same sample conducting from the date of the closing of registrations, to municipal polling day).