Keywords: Political behavior, participation and culture

The unexpected success of the ‘Leave’ camp in the 2016 Brexit referendum has partly been explained by the effective mobilization of globalization ‘losers’, and the predominantly negative media coverage is seen as a major accomplice of the ‘Leave’ campaign (Hobolt, 2016; Seaton, 2016). Two key points stand out from this assessment: On the one hand, a categorization of citizens into assumed ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of globalization on the basis of socio-structural variables alone neglects the influence of citizens’ personal experience and attitudes. Instead, their subjective evaluations of whether they benefit from a globalized world should also be taken into account (e.g., Teney et al., 2014). On the other hand, there is little empirical research on the media’s role in voting for an EU exit so far (e.g., Moore & Ramsay, 2017), and detailed data on citizens’ exposure to the media content is still missing. In this context, our study examines how exposure to news influences support for a ‘Nexit’ in the Netherlands, and assesses this influence by linking detailed media content data to two-wave panel data.

Our research interest is three-fold: First, we investigate whether individual media exposure affects ‘Nexit’ vote intentions in a potential referendum. Second, we ask which kind of issues have the strongest effects on a possible ‘Leave’-vote, and concentrate on three topics that have been found to resonate strongly with Eurosceptic citizens (immigration, the national/EU economy, and news specifically concerned with the European Union). Third, we examine whether media exposure affects so-called ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of globalization differently, and focus on the interaction between citizens’ exposure to news about relevant issues and their personal experience with globalization on a potential ‘Nexit’-vote (e.g., Mutz, 1994). We test the relationships between these key concepts by assessing direct as well as moderating and possible mediating effects.

Data for the first wave of the online panel survey (n = 3026 Dutch citizens) were collected in September ‘17 (50% female, Mage = 47.89, range 17 – 94), and the second wave will field in January ’18 (expected retention rate approx. 75-80%). Media exposure is measured in both waves, with attitudes toward a potential ‘Nexit’ assessed in W2 as our dependent variable. The panel data will be linked to content measures by means of respondents’ self-reported exposure to political news in seven major Dutch newspapers, eight TV news programs, and a variety of online news websites between survey waves 1 and 2. The content analysis takes into account the main topic of news stories published during that time as well as their evaluation.

The findings add to our knowledge on the extent to which Brexit-specific observations are applicable to different EU contexts. By looking at the antecedents of a form of ‘hard’ Euroscepticism that may lead to further member states’ EU exit, our findings show how media coverage may exacerbate the rift between winners and losers of globalization with regard to a potential ‘Nexit’.