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Pre-election Polling Problems in Chile

Michael Traugott (University of Michigan)
Claire Durand (University of Montreal)
Timothy Johnson (University of Illinois - Chicago)
Alejandro Moreno (ITAM)

Keywords: Electoral polls in emerging/incomplete democracies

Abstract

Public opinion in a changing world is encapsulated in the business of pre-election polling in contemporary elections. Among the changes that can affect the accuracy of estimates of the outcome are shifting electoral rules, the development of new polling methods often propelled by pressure to reduce data collection costs, and changing regulations with regard to the media’s ability to publish poll results in the period just before Election Day. All of these factors came into play with regard to the pre-election polls preceding the recent presidential election in Chile. WAPOR appointed a committee to investigate and report on these issues, and this paper will present a description of their activities and a summary of their conclusions about the estimation difficulties experienced by the public polls.